AMA Trader
AMA Trader is an Expert Advisor based on Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (AMA), which dynamically adjusts its smoothing constant based on market volatility. It generates buy and sell signals when the AMA direction changes, adapting to trending versus ranging markets. The EA opens positions on AMA signal reversals and manages exits through opposite signals or stop-loss levels.
Open the interactive view (equity curve, symbol switch)Key facts
Backtest results (H1, about 1 year)
| Symbol | P&L | Annual | Max DD | Trades | Win rate | Sharpe | Recovery | Losing streak | Per trade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | Not convertible yet |
| GBPUSD | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | Not convertible yet |
| USDJPY | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | Not convertible yet |
| XAUUSD | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | Not convertible yet |
Why this EA never traded: no entry rule survived the conversion.
Converted from MQL5 to Python and run with the same rules for every EA. Positions use MT5 lot sizes (100,000 units per FX lot, 100 oz per gold lot) with 1:100 leverage, one order at a time, and a stop-out below 10% of the starting balance. Sharpe is computed from the equity curve. Results marked as unreliable are shown for completeness only.
Blow-up risk: No blow-up pattern found
None of the usual blow-up patterns were found in the code, and the account was not stopped out in our backtests. That is not a guarantee: any EA can lose money.
High: stopped out in our backtest, or martingale/grid sizing without a stop loss. Elevated: martingale or grid sizing with a stop loss, or several positions at once without a stop loss. What the label means and what we found →
Strategy analysis
The core strategy of AMA Trader is based on Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (AMA), which dynamically adjusts its sensitivity to price changes through the combination of the Efficiency Ratio (ER) and fast/slow smoothing constants. Entry conditions are triggered when the AMA direction changes: a buy signal is generated when AMA turns from declining to rising, and a sell signal when AMA turns from rising to declining. Exit conditions primarily rely on opposite AMA signals - closing longs when AMA turns down and closing shorts when AMA turns up. Position sizing uses either a fixed lot size or an account equity percentage-based calculation to determine trade size. Money management incorporates stop-loss and take-profit parameters to control the risk-reward ratio of each trade, though the adaptive indicator itself may generate frequent false signals during choppy markets leading to consecutive losses. Overall, the strategy performs well in strong trending markets but struggles with false breakouts during sideways consolidation periods.
Strengths
- The Adaptive Moving Average dynamically adjusts sensitivity based on market volatility, reacting quickly in trends and filtering noise in ranges
- Clear and concise strategy logic with unambiguous signals, easy to understand and optimize
- Fewer parameters reduce the risk of overfitting
Weaknesses
- In sideways markets, AMA direction flips frequently, generating numerous false signals that lead to consecutive losses
- Stop-loss defaults to 0, posing unlimited loss risk if not manually configured
- Lacks multi-timeframe confirmation and additional filter conditions, reducing the robustness of a single-indicator strategy
Possible improvements
- Add a trend strength filter (e.g., ADX) or volatility filter (e.g., ATR) to reduce trade frequency during sideways markets
- Implement multi-timeframe confirmation, only allowing trades when the higher timeframe trend direction aligns
Risk assessment
Overall risk: Medium
- Stop-loss defaults to 0, making single-trade risk uncontrollable if the user doesn't configure it
- Single AMA indicator prone to consecutive false signals in choppy markets
Evaluation scores
Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
FastMA | 2 | Fast smoothing period |
SlowMA | 30 | Slow smoothing period |
AMAPeriod | 10 | AMA efficiency coefficient calculation period |
Lots | 0.1 | Fixed trading lot size |
StopLoss | 0 | Stop loss in points |
TakeProfit | 0 | Take profit in points |
TrailingStop | 0 | Enable trailing stop |
Similar Trend Following EAs
Backtests are historical simulations and do not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.