Updated every trading day
Market regime dashboard
Where each market stands today: trend, volatility, drawdown, and the share of our rule-based strategies that are currently in the market. Data through 2026-11-10.
S&P 500Volatile uptrend
1 month-3.6%
Strategies in the market21/56
GoldStress
1 month-3.3%
Strategies in the market16/56
SilverStress
1 month-14.5%
Strategies in the market19/56
OilVolatile uptrend
1 month-6.3%
Strategies in the market21/56
Natural gasDowntrend
1 month-4.6%
Strategies in the market18/56
CommoditiesSteady uptrend
1 month-7.7%
Strategies in the market25/56
AgricultureMixed / turning
1 month-7.7%
Strategies in the market21/56
EUR/USDDowntrend
1 month+0.2%
Strategies in the market16/56
BitcoinSteady uptrend
1 month-11.1%
Strategies in the market19/56
EtherMixed / turning
1 month-16.2%
Strategies in the market16/56
What changed this week
- S&P 500: Steady uptrend → Volatile uptrend on 2026-11-05
- Gold: Downtrend → Stress on 2026-11-09
- Silver: Downtrend → Stress on 2026-11-04
- Oil: Steady uptrend → Volatile uptrend on 2026-11-04
- Ether: Steady uptrend → Mixed / turning on 2026-11-08
- 26 strategy positions changed on Natural gas in the last five trading days.
- 24 strategy positions changed on Oil in the last five trading days.
- 20 strategy positions changed on S&P 500 in the last five trading days.
| Market | Regime | Since | 1 week | 1 month | 1 year | vs 200-day avg | Volatility (percentile) | From 1-year high | Strategies in market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Volatile uptrend | 2026-11-05 | -0.6% | -3.6% | +13.0% | +3.0% | 22% · Elevated (96) | -3.7% | 21 / 56 |
| Gold | Stress | 2026-11-09 | +2.8% | -3.3% | +0.3% | -10.0% | 28% · Elevated (83) | -25.5% | 16 / 56 |
| Silver | Stress | 2026-11-04 | +3.7% | -14.5% | +5.8% | -26.0% | 48% · Elevated (83) | -56.0% | 19 / 56 |
| Oil | Volatile uptrend | 2026-11-04 | -10.6% | -6.3% | +98.5% | +11.7% | 49% · Elevated (84) | -16.6% | 21 / 56 |
| Natural gas | Downtrend | 2026-10-14 | +14.1% | -4.6% | -25.3% | -6.0% | 44% · Calm (31) | -38.3% | 18 / 56 |
| Commodities | Steady uptrend | 2026-08-31 | -5.2% | -7.7% | +38.8% | +4.2% | 20% · Normal (78) | -9.8% | 25 / 56 |
| Agriculture | Mixed / turning | 2026-10-28 | -1.0% | -7.7% | +3.8% | -4.1% | 8% · Calm (9) | -11.0% | 21 / 56 |
| EUR/USD | Downtrend | 2026-09-11 | +0.3% | +0.2% | -3.1% | -2.7% | 5% · Normal (34) | -6.6% | 16 / 56 |
| Bitcoin | Steady uptrend | 2026-09-08 | -2.9% | -11.1% | +7.9% | +0.8% | 33% · Normal (51) | -14.9% | 19 / 56 |
| Ether | Mixed / turning | 2026-11-08 | -8.2% | -16.2% | +3.4% | -4.7% | 47% · Normal (39) | -26.2% | 16 / 56 |
How the markets are moving together
| S&P 500 | Gold | Silver | Oil | Natural gas | Commodities | Agriculture | EUR/USD | Bitcoin | Ether | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 1.00 | 0.42 | 0.51 | -0.44 | 0.20 | -0.35 | 0.17 | -0.39 | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| Gold | 0.42 | 1.00 | 0.90 | -0.37 | 0.04 | -0.24 | -0.11 | -0.32 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Silver | 0.51 | 0.90 | 1.00 | -0.36 | 0.07 | -0.22 | -0.01 | -0.29 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Oil | -0.44 | -0.37 | -0.36 | 1.00 | -0.10 | 0.95 | 0.11 | 0.06 | -0.21 | -0.20 |
| Natural gas | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.07 | -0.10 | 1.00 | -0.07 | 0.06 | -0.28 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Commodities | -0.35 | -0.24 | -0.22 | 0.95 | -0.07 | 1.00 | 0.23 | -0.01 | -0.11 | -0.11 |
| Agriculture | 0.17 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| EUR/USD | -0.39 | -0.32 | -0.29 | 0.06 | -0.28 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 1.00 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| Bitcoin | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.54 | -0.21 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 0.15 | -0.01 | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| Ether | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.51 | -0.20 | -0.01 | -0.11 | 0.16 | -0.06 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
Correlation of daily returns over the last 60 trading days on days when both markets traded. 1 = move together, 0 = unrelated, negative = move opposite.
How regimes are defined
- Steady uptrend Close above the 200-day average, 50-day above 200-day, volatility not elevated.
- Volatile uptrend Uptrend, but 20-day volatility is in the top fifth of its last three years.
- Mixed / turning Price and the two averages disagree: the trend is turning or absent.
- Downtrend Close below the 200-day average and 50-day below 200-day, volatility not elevated.
- Stress Downtrend with volatility in the top fifth of its last three years.
A regime uses closing prices up to that day only. Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of the last 20 daily returns, ranked against the previous three years of the same market. Strategy counts use the engine's position for each strategy at the last close. Descriptive statistics from historical data. Not a forecast and not investment advice.