Where Oil stands
Volatile uptrend Uptrend, but 20-day volatility is in the top fifth of its last three years.
Price and moving averages
Strategy positioning
Today 21 of 56 strategies hold a position on Oil (38%); among the 24 trend-following strategies, 6 are long. Over the last three years the share in the market averaged 38%.
The history counts a strategy as in the market on days its equity moved. Today's figure uses the engine's actual positions.
What followed each regime
| Regime | Share of days | Avg next month | Median next month | Up next month | Episodes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady uptrend | 33% | -0.5% | -1.5% | 44% | 60 |
| Volatile uptrend ← current | 7% | +5.5% | +4.6% | 72% | 17 |
| Mixed / turning | 19% | -0.2% | +0.3% | 52% | 103 |
| Downtrend | 26% | +1.1% | +2.3% | 60% | 78 |
| Stress | 14% | -1.1% | +1.4% | 54% | 31 |
| All days | 100% | +0.3% | +0.7% | 53% | — |
Next month = the following 21 trading days, starting the day after. History from 2011-01-31. Days overlap, so these are descriptive averages, not independent trials, and not a forecast.
Who is in the market
Positions are the mechanical output of backtest rules at the last close, not advice.
Other markets
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A regime uses closing prices up to that day only. Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of the last 20 daily returns, ranked against the previous three years of the same market. Strategy counts use the engine's position for each strategy at the last close. Descriptive statistics from historical data. Not a forecast and not investment advice.