TREND-13 · Trend Following

Triple Moving Average

Uses short, medium, and long SMAs to confirm trend alignment. Long when the fast SMA is above the medium SMA and the medium SMA is above the slow SMA. Exit when the stack reverses.

TrendMomentum

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At a glance

Best onSustained trends with clean regimes

Signal frequencyDaily

Typical holding periodWeeks

Asset classesIndex, Commodity, FX

Markets tested10

Data through2026-11-10

What the backtest shows

Beat buy-and-hold on 2 of 10 markets by annual return over 5 years.
Had a smaller maximum drawdown than buy-and-hold on 9 of 10 markets.
Best market by Sharpe ratio: GLD (Sharpe 0.81, CAGR 13.0%).
Weakest market: ETH-USD (Sharpe -0.33, CAGR -23.4%).
Few or no trades in the window on SPY, DBA, UNG — treat those rows as a sign the rules rarely triggered, not as an edge.

Equity curve

Triple Moving Average Buy & hold · SPY, 2010-01-04 → 2026-11-10, growth of 1

Score and risk profile

Arena Score: 75.6SPY, 5 years

Return quality · 30%85

Drawdown control · 25%53

Consistency · 20%65

Robustness · 15%95

Significance · 10%95

Each bar is a percentile against every strategy on the same market and window (100 = best).

Time in market78%

Ulcer index8.0%

Longest drawdown708 days

Daily VaR (95%)-1.42%

Probability Sharpe > 095%

Beta vs buy & hold0.69

Alpha (annual)+1.7%

Positive months50%

CAGR after 10 bp costs9.6%

Deflated Sharpe (luck-adjusted)55%

CAGR, 90% bootstrap range-0.5% to 19.6%

Max drawdown, 90% bootstrap range-32.9% to -12.3%

How it held up in sell-offs (SPY)

Period	Strategy	Buy & hold
Q4 2018 sell-off	-19.2%	-19.2%
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)	-33.7%	-33.7%
2022 bear market	-15.6%	-24.5%
Market above its 200-day average (annualized) · 81%	+12.0%	+12.5%
Market below its 200-day average (annualized) · 19%	+4.5%	+19.8%

Sell-off dates follow the US stock market. Above/below the 200-day average uses the previous day's position, so there is no look-ahead.

Out-of-sample check (SPY)

Check	Value
Chosen parameters on their 3-year training windows (average Sharpe)	0.93
Same parameters in the following 6 months, when traded (Sharpe)	0.84
Default parameters over the same months (Sharpe)	0.77
Parameter re-selections / changes	28 / 5
Parameter settings with a positive Sharpe (full history)	9 of 9
Sharpe across settings: worst / median / best	0.70 / 0.74 / 0.78

Out-of-sample periods start on 2013-01-04. Training-window figures are flattered by picking the best of 9 settings; the out-of-sample figure is what the strategy actually earned. A large drop, or a result that depends on one setting, points to overfitting. How walk-forward testing works.

Results by market (5 years)

Market	CAGR	Buy & hold CAGR	Sharpe	Max drawdown	Buy & hold max DD	Volatility	Arena Score
GLDSPDR Gold Shares	13.0%	16.4%	0.81	-26.2%	-28.3%	16.9%	60
SPYSPDR S&P 500	9.7%	11.6%	0.71	-18.8%	-24.5%	14.4%	76
DBAInvesco DB Agriculture	8.4%	8.8%	0.69	-15.9%	-15.9%	13.0%	75
DBCInvesco DB Commodity Index	8.6%	10.8%	0.54	-33.6%	-27.3%	17.5%	66
SLViShares Silver Trust	12.7%	15.2%	0.53	-52.3%	-57.8%	33.5%	57
USOUnited States Oil Fund	9.4%	20.2%	0.42	-34.8%	-36.2%	32.6%	55
BTC-USDBitcoin	0.6%	2.6%	0.14	-50.6%	-75.9%	28.8%	33
EURUSD=XEUR/USD	-0.4%	-0.7%	-0.05	-7.9%	-17.2%	4.8%	53
UNGUnited States Natural Gas	-9.2%	-30.7%	-0.05	-70.4%	-93.3%	39.2%	51
ETH-USDEthereum	-23.4%	-15.1%	-0.33	-77.9%	-79.0%	36.2%	8

Strategy metrics use daily returns without trading costs. Buy-and-hold figures are for the same market and window. Rows are sorted by Sharpe ratio.

SPY across time windows

Window	Total return	CAGR	Sharpe	Sortino	Max DD	Win days	Trades
1 year	+11.2%	11.2%	0.96	1.32	-8.9%	52%	0
3 years	+62.8%	17.6%	1.18	1.48	-18.8%	52%	2
5 years	+58.9%	9.7%	0.71	0.84	-18.8%	43%	4
Full history	+437.8%	10.5%	0.76	0.81	-33.7%	44%	13

Rules

Entry

Go long when SMA(Short) > SMA(Medium) > SMA(Long)

Exit

Exit when SMA(Short) < SMA(Medium) < SMA(Long)

Indicators

SMA(Short)
SMA(Medium)
SMA(Long)

Inputs

Short = 50
Medium = 100
Long = 200

Position sizing

Fixed 100% allocation

Risk controls

Hold prior position when signals are mixed

Strategy evidence

Only available, validated bundles appear below. Missing evidence is not a passing validation result.

Evidence coverage

10 / 10 declared strategy–market pairs validated

Notes

Reduces whipsaws versus dual MA
Late entry in sharp reversals

Related strategies

HMA-01 · SPY 5Y Sharpe 0.06HMA Crossover MOM-01 · EURUSD=X 5Y Sharpe 0.19Time-Series Momentum MOM-05 · FABER-TAA 5Y Sharpe 0.91Faber TAA MOM-10 · SPY 5Y Sharpe 0.81Accelerating Momentum TREND-05 · SPY 5Y Sharpe 0.71Dual Moving Average TREND-12 · SPY 5Y Sharpe 0.30MACD Strategy

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Backtests are historical simulations on daily data and do not include commissions or slippage. They do not guarantee future results and are not investment advice. See the methodology for how every strategy is tested.