Claim check: Bitcoin four-year halving cycle
“Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle around the halving: prices peak 12-18 months after each halving.”
What the data says
Not enough data Not enough data to say: no market had more than 3 independent events after the signal, fewer than the 10 needed even to start judging, so any pattern is an anecdote.
Too few independent events or observations to judge either way.
Who says it
Crypto Twitter and YouTube analysts; PlanB's stock-to-flow narrative.
Origins are as commonly cited and were not independently verified.
How we tested it
Halving dates 2016-07-09, 2020-05-11 and 2024-04-20 (first close on or after each). For Bitcoin we record the return over the next 90, 180 and 365 days and the number of days from the halving to the highest close within the following 600 days, and compare the returns with the average for all days. With three events there is no statistical test to run; the page lists them for context.
Results
After a halving 365-day (claim: higher than average)
| Market | Events | Mean after | All days | Difference | Median after | Up share | t-stat | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3 | +292.4% | +140.9% | +151.5% | +286.9% | 100% | 1.0 (likely noise) | Too little data |
Difference from the average, by market (365-day)
By horizon: mean difference from all days
| Market | 90-day | 180-day | 365-day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -9.6% (3) | -5.9% (3) | +151.5% (3) |
Event by event (Bitcoin)
| Halving | 90-day | 180-day | 365-day | Days to peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-07-09 | -5.2% | +55.7% | +286.9% | 525 |
| 2020-05-11 | +35.7% | +72.4% | +559.2% | 546 |
| 2024-04-20 | +2.6% | +3.7% | +31.0% | 534 |
0 of 1 markets had enough data.
Stability across the two halves of history
A saying that only works in one half of the history is not much of a rule. Each row shows the effect in the full history, the first half and the second half; green means the claimed effect was present.
| Market | Full history | First half | Second half |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | +151.5% (3) | +198.0% (2) | -9.2% (1) |
The honest caveat
Three halvings are three observations; any pattern is basically anecdote.
Descriptive statistics from historical data, before costs. Not a forecast and not investment advice.
Questions
Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle around the halving: prices peak 12-18 months after each halving.
Not enough data to say: no market had more than 3 independent events after the signal, fewer than the 10 needed even to start judging, so any pattern is an anecdote.
How was this claim tested?
Halving dates 2016-07-09, 2020-05-11 and 2024-04-20 (first close on or after each). For Bitcoin we record the return over the next 90, 180 and 365 days and the number of days from the halving to the highest close within the following 600 days, and compare the returns with the average for all days. With three events there is no statistical test to run; the page lists them for context.