Claim check: Bitcoin as digital gold
“Bitcoin is digital gold: it holds up when stocks fall.”
What the data says
Does not hold Not supported by the data: on the 99 days when S&P 500 fell 2% or more, Bitcoin returned -3.07% on average against +0.25% on all days (t = -4.6); in the 8 worst months for S&P 500 it averaged -5.1% a month. The effect runs the other way.
No effect we can tell from chance, or the opposite effect.
Who says it
Michael Saylor, Grayscale and many crypto influencers.
Origins are as commonly cited and were not independently verified.
How we tested it
On the dates both SPY and Bitcoin have a close (weekdays), we pick the days when SPY fell 2% or more and look at the same-day return of Bitcoin against its average on all days. A safe haven has to be clearly higher than usual on those days, in both halves. Correlations with gold and with stocks are shown for context.
Results
| Pair | Event days | Mean on event days | Mean on all days | Difference | Up share | t-stat | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 / Bitcoin | 99 | -3.07% | +0.25% | -3.32% | 28% | -4.6 | Opposite, significant |
In the 8 worst months for S&P 500, Bitcoin averaged -5.1% (up in 1 of them); on all months Bitcoin averaged +5.7%.
Stability across the two halves of history
A saying that only works in one half of the history is not much of a rule. Each row shows the effect in the full history, the first half and the second half; green means the claimed effect was present.
| Market | Full history | First half | Second half |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 / Bitcoin | -3.32% | -2.03% (53) | -4.82% (46) |
Context and cross-checks
Shown for context; not part of the verdict.
Bitcoin vs gold: correlation of daily returns
| Pair | Days | Correlation | First half | Second half | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin / Gold | 3055 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.12 | No effect |
Correlation by year
| Year | Correlation |
|---|---|
| 2014 | -0.15 |
| 2015 | -0.01 |
| 2016 | 0.09 |
| 2017 | -0.03 |
| 2018 | -0.05 |
| 2019 | 0.22 |
| 2020 | 0.29 |
| 2021 | -0.01 |
| 2022 | 0.14 |
| 2023 | 0.10 |
| 2024 | 0.08 |
| 2025 | 0.11 |
| 2026 | 0.32 |
Bitcoin vs the S&P 500: correlation of daily returns
| Pair | Days | Correlation | First half | Second half | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin / S&P 500 | 3055 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.36 | Opposite, significant |
Correlation by year
| Year | Correlation |
|---|---|
| 2014 | -0.09 |
| 2015 | 0.06 |
| 2016 | -0.05 |
| 2017 | 0.07 |
| 2018 | 0.07 |
| 2019 | -0.12 |
| 2020 | 0.43 |
| 2021 | 0.26 |
| 2022 | 0.56 |
| 2023 | 0.15 |
| 2024 | 0.36 |
| 2025 | 0.42 |
| 2026 | 0.47 |
The honest caveat
Correlation changes over time and says nothing about long-term store of value.
Descriptive statistics from historical data, before costs. Not a forecast and not investment advice.
Questions
Bitcoin is digital gold: it holds up when stocks fall.
Not supported by the data: on the 99 days when S&P 500 fell 2% or more, Bitcoin returned -3.07% on average against +0.25% on all days (t = -4.6); in the 8 worst months for S&P 500 it averaged -5.1% a month. The effect runs the other way.
How was this claim tested?
On the dates both SPY and Bitcoin have a close (weekdays), we pick the days when SPY fell 2% or more and look at the same-day return of Bitcoin against its average on all days. A safe haven has to be clearly higher than usual on those days, in both halves. Correlations with gold and with stocks are shown for context.