Claim check: Weak dollar, strong gold
“When the dollar falls, gold rises.”
What the data says
Does not hold Not supported by the data: the daily returns of EUR/USD and gold had a correlation of 0.02 over 2010-01-05 to 2026-11-10 (0.02 in the first half and 0.01 in the second), which is essentially no link. We see no sign of the claimed effect.
No effect we can tell from chance, or the opposite effect.
Who says it
Macro commentators.
Origins are as commonly cited and were not independently verified.
How we tested it
We use EUR/USD as an inverse dollar proxy (euro up means dollar down). Correlation of daily returns between EUR/USD and GLD on common dates, for the full history and each half. A positive correlation of at least 0.30 in all three periods counts as the dollar and gold moving oppositely; 0.10 to 0.30 as a weak link.
Results
| Pair | Days | Correlation | First half | Second half | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD / Gold | 4233 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | No effect |
Correlation by year
| Year | Correlation |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 0.03 |
| 2011 | 0.11 |
| 2012 | -0.05 |
| 2013 | 0.01 |
| 2014 | -0.12 |
| 2015 | 0.08 |
| 2016 | -0.01 |
| 2017 | -0.02 |
| 2018 | 0.06 |
| 2019 | -0.15 |
| 2020 | 0.05 |
| 2021 | 0.03 |
| 2022 | 0.01 |
| 2023 | -0.01 |
| 2024 | -0.11 |
| 2025 | -0.01 |
| 2026 | 0.07 |
Stability across the two halves of history
A saying that only works in one half of the history is not much of a rule. Each row shows the effect in the full history, the first half and the second half; green means the claimed effect was present.
| Market | Full history | First half | Second half |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD / Gold | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Context and cross-checks
Shown for context; not part of the verdict.
Gold on days when EUR/USD rose 0.5% or more
| Pair | Event days | Mean on event days | Mean on all days | Difference | Up share | t-stat | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD / Gold | 599 | +0.03% | +0.03% | -0.01% | 52% | -0.1 (likely noise) | No effect |
The honest caveat
EUR/USD is only one of several currencies in the dollar index.
Descriptive statistics from historical data, before costs. Not a forecast and not investment advice.
Questions
When the dollar falls, gold rises.
Not supported by the data: the daily returns of EUR/USD and gold had a correlation of 0.02 over 2010-01-05 to 2026-11-10 (0.02 in the first half and 0.01 in the second), which is essentially no link. We see no sign of the claimed effect.
How was this claim tested?
We use EUR/USD as an inverse dollar proxy (euro up means dollar down). Correlation of daily returns between EUR/USD and GLD on common dates, for the full history and each half. A positive correlation of at least 0.30 in all three periods counts as the dollar and gold moving oppositely; 0.10 to 0.30 as a weak link.