Deep Drawdown MA
This EA uses a moving average-based entry signal and employs a deep martingale position sizing strategy that increases lot size after consecutive losses to recover drawdowns. It opens positions when price deviates from the MA and doubles down on losing positions, aiming to close all trades at a breakeven or profit level when the market reverts. The core concept relies on averaging into losing positions with progressively larger lots, which is inherently risky.
Open the interactive view (equity curve, symbol switch)Key facts
Backtest results (H1, about 1 year)
| Symbol | P&L | Annual | Max DD | Trades | Win rate | Sharpe | Recovery | Losing streak | Per trade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | +0.74% | +0.64% | 3.84% | 60 | 35.60% | 0.18 | 0.19 | 6 | +$0.62 | Reliable |
| GBPUSD | +2.37% | +2.06% | 7.21% | 73 | 38.40% | 0.38 | 0.33 | 7 | +$3.25 | Reliable |
| USDJPY | +3.96% | +3.43% | 6.27% | 89 | 45.50% | 0.70 | 0.63 | 5 | +$4.56 | Reliable |
| XAUUSD | -52.79% | -46.21% | 80.89% | 117 | 45.70% | -0.48 | -0.65 | 6 | −$43.37 | Reliable |
Profitable on 3 of 4 markets with reliable results.
Converted from MQL5 to Python and run with the same rules for every EA. Positions use MT5 lot sizes (100,000 units per FX lot, 100 oz per gold lot) with 1:100 leverage, one order at a time, and a stop-out below 10% of the starting balance. Sharpe is computed from the equity curve. Results marked as unreliable are shown for completeness only.
Against the other Martingale EAs with a reliable result on the same market: EURUSD: better than 81% of 16 · GBPUSD: better than 60% of 15 · USDJPY: better than 88% of 16 · XAUUSD: better than 6% of 16
Month by month
| Market | Months with a gain | Best month | Worst month |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 38% | +1.79% 2025-11 | -1.50% 2026-05 |
| GBPUSD | 62% | +3.03% 2026-07 | -2.79% 2025-12 |
| USDJPY | 54% | +3.55% 2026-02 | -3.32% 2025-12 |
| XAUUSD | 38% | +25.59% 2026-01 | -40.74% 2026-08 |
From the backtest equity curve, sampled about every two days; only reliable results.
Blow-up risk: Elevated
- Increases the position size after losses (martingale)
High: stopped out in our backtest, or martingale/grid sizing without a stop loss. Elevated: martingale or grid sizing with a stop loss, or several positions at once without a stop loss. What the label means and what we found →
Strategy analysis
The strategy concept is based on price deviation from a moving average: when price moves far from the MA, the EA judges it as an over-extension and opens a counter-trend position expecting mean reversion. Entry conditions trigger the first position when price deviates beyond a configured threshold from the MA, and if price continues moving against the position, additional orders are placed at fixed intervals with progressively larger lot sizes following a martingale multiplier (e.g., 1.5x or 2x). Exit conditions typically close all positions in the basket when the combined portfolio reaches a target profit or breakeven level, without individual stop-losses on each order. Position sizing follows a martingale progression where the initial lot is small but subsequent layers grow exponentially, so that the overall average entry price only needs a small favorable move to break even. Money management lacks fixed stop-losses and maximum drawdown limits, heavily relying on the assumption that price will eventually revert to the mean. This strategy may perform acceptably in ranging markets but faces catastrophic risk during strong trending conditions that could wipe out the entire account.
Strengths
- Profitable in ranging markets by exploiting mean reversion characteristics
- Highly parameterized allowing users to adjust MA period, multiplier, step distance and other key settings
- Basket take-profit mechanism ensures unified exit when the combined position is profitable, avoiding greed
- Relatively simple code structure with clear logic for easy understanding and modification
- Controllable initial lot size with small starting position reducing initial risk exposure
Weaknesses
- Martingale strategy leads to exponentially growing losses during strong trending markets
- Lacks hard stop-loss protection; extreme market moves can blow the account
- The multiplying lot size causes risk to escalate dramatically in later layers
- Over-reliance on mean reversion assumption; price may not revert for extended periods in trending markets
- Maximum order limit is still insufficient to control risk under extreme volatility conditions
Possible improvements
- Add a global maximum drawdown limit and account equity protection mechanism that forces closure when thresholds are breached
- Incorporate a trend filter (e.g., ADX or higher timeframe MA direction) to prohibit counter-trend pyramiding during strong trends
Risk assessment
Overall risk: Dangerous
- Martingale progression exponentially increases position size on losses with no hard stop-loss
- Extreme one-directional moves can exhaust max order layers without rescue, leading to account blowout
- Lacks account-level risk controls such as maximum drawdown percentage or margin ratio protection
Evaluation scores
Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
MA_Period | 200 | MA period for deviation calculation baseline |
LotSize | 0.01 | Initial lot size, martingale base quantity |
Multiplier | 2.0 | Martingale multiplier for each additional order |
Step | 50 | Grid spacing in points between order levels |
TakeProfit | 10 | Group TP in points, close all at this profit |
MaxOrders | 10 | Maximum martingale order layers |
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Backtests are historical simulations and do not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.