Weinstein 30-Week MA Stage Analysis: does it still work? Replicated through 2026
We re-ran it on 6 markets from 2010-09-03 to 2026-11-10 (16.2 years, before costs): +13.8% a year, Sharpe 1.28, worst drawdown -15.5%. The benchmark, Equal-weight of 6 markets, did +14.3% a year (Sharpe 0.92, worst drawdown -36.4%).
Verdict: Better risk-adjusted return than its benchmark over this period. Historical, hypothetical results before costs, taxes and fees. Not investment advice.
This is our adapted version, not the real portfolio or fund. Read what is lost before comparing it with anything published about the original.
What is lost
- The chart-pattern judgement (base, breakout, volume, relative strength) is replaced by a mechanical average-and-slope test.
- 30 weeks is approximated by 150 trading days; only six markets.
Where it comes from
Weinstein's four-stage framework is one of the most widely taught chart-based trend methods.
Rules, weights and thresholds are given as commonly cited. We have not re-checked them against the primary text.
The original rules
Buy only in Stage 2 (price above a rising 30-week moving average after a base); sell when price falls into Stage 3/4 below the declining average.
How we replicate it
What we changed
30 weeks is approximated by 150 trading days; chart-pattern judgment, volume and relative strength are dropped, leaving a mechanical MA-and-slope rule on six markets.
The exact rule we run
For each of SPY, GLD, SLV, DBC, DBA and BTC-USD, at the close: enter when the close is above its 150-day average and that average is above its own value 20 trading days earlier; exit when the close falls below the average. Fixed 1/6 slot per market, OFF slots in cash.
Conventions: Position decided at a close earns the next day's return; no look-ahead; before costs; cash earns 0%; starts 2010-09-03, the first day a signal exists; every market has an equal slot of equity; indicators use each market's own trading days.
Growth of 1 vs the benchmark
Benchmark: Equal-weight of 6 markets, same period. Equal slots in S&P 500, Gold, Silver, Commodities, Agriculture, Bitcoin, rebalanced daily; a market without data yet stays in cash.
Drawdown from the previous peak
Key numbers
Sample: 2010-09-03 to 2026-11-10, 16.2 years, 5453 daily observations. Annualised from the number of observations per year of the strategy's own calendar. Before costs.
Recent and full-period returns
| Period | Replica | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Last month | -4.4% | -7.9% |
| Last year | +18.4% | +5.7% |
| Last 5 years | +75.8% | +93.8% |
| Whole period (cumulative) | +713.5% | +770.0% |
Calendar-year returns
| Year | Replica | Benchmark | Replica minus benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | +10.6% | +1.9% | +8.7% |
| 2025 | +20.2% | +32.5% | -12.3% |
| 2024 | +30.1% | +37.7% | -7.6% |
| 2023 | +7.9% | +26.4% | -18.5% |
| 2022 | -0.2% | -12.4% | +12.2% |
| 2021 | +17.7% | +26.3% | -8.6% |
| 2020 | +34.8% | +48.5% | -13.7% |
| 2019 | +17.8% | +29.7% | -11.9% |
| 2018 | -11.1% | -20.8% | +9.8% |
| 2017 | +72.3% | +77.6% | -5.4% |
| 2016 | +19.1% | +26.6% | -7.5% |
| 2015 | +7.0% | -3.3% | +10.3% |
| 2014 | -1.7% | -10.8% | +9.1% |
| 2013 | +4.0% | -10.5% | +14.6% |
| 2012 | -4.1% | +5.8% | -10.0% |
| 2011 | +2.7% | -0.4% | +3.1% |
| 2010* | +19.0% | +20.0% | -0.9% |
* Partial year. The first year starts on the first day of the replica; the current year is year to date.
Position as of 2026-11-10
| Holding | Weight |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | 16.7% |
| Commodities DBC | 16.7% |
| Bitcoin BTC-USD | 16.7% |
| Cash (0%) | 50.0% |
Last change of position: 2026-11-09. Drawdown from its peak today: -5.2%.
What it did in 2020 and 2022
| Episode | Dates | Replica | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID crash | 2020-02-19 → 2020-03-23 | -8.2% | -21.8% |
| 2022 bear market | 2022-01-03 → 2022-10-12 | -0.2% | -15.7% |
Close to close between the two dates. Two episodes only: not enough to judge a strategy.
How much to trust it
- 419 position changes over 16.2 years.
- This is one backtest on one path of history, before costs and with hindsight on the choice of strategy. It does not show the strategy will work in future.
Honest caveat
A mechanical shortcut of a discretionary chart-reading method, so it only approximates his stage calls.
Related
Other famous strategies
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Similar idea, tested on the site's own rule set; not the same rule.
Markets used: S&P 500 · Gold · Silver · Commodities · Agriculture · Bitcoin
Historical, hypothetical results before costs, taxes and fees. Not investment advice.