Disaster
Disaster is a Martingale-based Expert Advisor that doubles the lot size after each losing trade, aiming to recover losses with a single winning trade. It opens positions based on a simple directional signal and relies on the Martingale progression rather than technical analysis for profitability. The EA carries significant risk of account blow-up due to its exponential position sizing.
Open the interactive view (equity curve, symbol switch)Key facts
Backtest results (H1, about 1 year)
| Symbol | P&L | Annual | Max DD | Trades | Win rate | Sharpe | Recovery | Losing streak | Per trade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | -2.70% | -2.35% | 4.07% | 114 | 46.90% | -0.60 | -0.66 | 5 | −$2.09 | Reliable |
| GBPUSD | -0.24% | -0.21% | 4.79% | 117 | 45.70% | -0.01 | -0.05 | 8 | $0.00 | Reliable |
| USDJPY | -3.53% | -3.07% | 7.19% | 117 | 48.30% | -0.67 | -0.49 | 6 | −$3.17 | Reliable |
| XAUUSD | +7.64% | +6.27% | 53.77% | 110 | 48.60% | 0.45 | 0.14 | 7 | +$9.28 | Reliable |
Profitable on 1 of 4 markets with reliable results.
Converted from MQL5 to Python and run with the same rules for every EA. Positions use MT5 lot sizes (100,000 units per FX lot, 100 oz per gold lot) with 1:100 leverage, one order at a time, and a stop-out below 10% of the starting balance. Sharpe is computed from the equity curve. Results marked as unreliable are shown for completeness only.
Against the other Martingale EAs with a reliable result on the same market: EURUSD: better than 25% of 16 · GBPUSD: better than 27% of 15 · USDJPY: better than 12% of 16 · XAUUSD: better than 31% of 16
Month by month
| Market | Months with a gain | Best month | Worst month |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 31% | +1.56% 2026-04 | -1.35% 2026-01 |
| GBPUSD | 62% | +1.39% 2026-08 | -2.71% 2026-10 |
| USDJPY | 38% | +3.02% 2026-04 | -4.22% 2026-08 |
| XAUUSD | 54% | +50.04% 2026-02 | -29.03% 2026-08 |
From the backtest equity curve, sampled about every two days; only reliable results.
Blow-up risk: Elevated
- Increases the position size after losses (martingale)
High: stopped out in our backtest, or martingale/grid sizing without a stop loss. Elevated: martingale or grid sizing with a stop loss, or several positions at once without a stop loss. What the label means and what we found →
Strategy analysis
The EA employs the classic Martingale concept, doubling the lot size after each consecutive loss in hopes that a single win recovers all prior losses. Entry conditions are typically based on simple directional price signals or basic indicator readings without sophisticated technical analysis filters. Exit conditions rely on an overall profit target across all positions, closing everything when cumulative profit reaches a predefined threshold. Position sizing follows the pure Martingale progression where the initial lot is small but grows exponentially with each consecutive loss. Money management is essentially non-existent as there is no stop-loss and no maximum martingale step limit, making account blow-up highly probable during trending markets. The strategy may show short-term profits in ranging markets but faces catastrophic risk during sustained directional moves.
Strengths
- Can generate consistent profits in ranging markets with controlled short-term drawdown
- Simple and intuitive logic with few parameters making it easy to understand and configure
- Theoretically guarantees recovery with unlimited capital
Weaknesses
- Exponential lot growth can easily blow the account with extreme risk of total loss
- No stop-loss protection means losses are unbounded during extreme market moves
- Requires extremely large capital and small accounts are almost guaranteed to fail
- Enormous psychological pressure during prolonged losing streaks
Possible improvements
- Add a maximum Martingale step limit to prevent infinite position scaling
- Implement stop-loss and money management module to cap maximum loss per cycle as a percentage of equity
- Add trend filtering indicators to avoid adding positions against strong directional moves
Risk assessment
Overall risk: Dangerous
- Martingale doubling strategy causes exponential lot growth during losing streaks,easilyleading toaccount liquidation
- No stop-loss mechanism means unlimited loss exposure
- No maximum step limit means small accounts cannot sustain the capital required for recovery
Evaluation scores
Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
InitialLot | 0.01 | Initial lot size |
Multiplier | 2.0 | Martingale multiplier, lot size multiplied after loss |
TakeProfit | 10 | Overall take profit target (points) |
MaxSteps | 0 | Max averaging-down steps, 0 = unlimited |
Distance | 50 | Position addition distance in points |
Similar Martingale EAs
Backtests are historical simulations and do not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.