Bogle Buy-and-Hold Index Fund: does it still work? Replicated through 2026
We re-ran it on S&P 500 from 2010-01-04 to 2026-11-10 (16.8 years, before costs): +13.8% a year, Sharpe 0.85, worst drawdown -33.7%. The benchmark, S&P 500 buy-and-hold, did +13.8% a year (Sharpe 0.85, worst drawdown -33.7%).
Verdict: About the same risk-adjusted return as its benchmark. Historical, hypothetical results before costs, taxes and fees. Not investment advice.
This replica applies the published rule as written, on the instrument we have. It is still a backtest on ETF data, before costs.
What is lost
- Bogle suggested holding bonds in proportion to age; this is the stock-only core (100% SPY).
Where it comes from
Bogle founded Vanguard and the first index fund, making buy-and-hold the benchmark every other strategy is judged against.
Rules, weights and thresholds are given as commonly cited. We have not re-checked them against the primary text.
The original rules
Buy a low-cost, broad market index fund and hold it forever, ignoring market timing; Bogle suggested adding bonds by age, but the core idea is the equity index fund.
How we replicate it
What we changed
100% SPY, never rebalanced; this is the passive benchmark and the bond component Bogle suggested for older investors is omitted.
The exact rule we run
Buy 100% SPY on the first day and hold it. No rebalancing, no trading.
Target weights: 100.0% S&P 500.
Conventions: Position decided at a close earns the next day's return; no look-ahead; before costs; cash earns 0%; starts 2010-01-04, when all its assets have data; weights drift between rebalances (never rebalanced); rebalanced at the last close of the period.
Growth of 1 vs the benchmark
Benchmark: S&P 500 buy-and-hold, same period. Bought on the first day and held.
Drawdown from the previous peak
Key numbers
Sample: 2010-01-04 to 2026-11-10, 16.8 years, 4240 daily observations. Annualised from the number of observations per year of the strategy's own calendar. Before costs.
Recent and full-period returns
| Period | Replica | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Last month | -3.7% | -3.7% |
| Last year | +11.2% | +11.2% |
| Last 5 years | +72.9% | +72.9% |
| Whole period (cumulative) | +788.9% | +788.9% |
Calendar-year returns
| Year | Replica | Benchmark | Replica minus benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | +10.8% | +10.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | +17.7% | +17.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +24.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023 | +26.2% | +26.2% | 0.0% |
| 2022 | -18.2% | -18.2% | 0.0% |
| 2021 | +28.7% | +28.7% | 0.0% |
| 2020 | +18.3% | +18.3% | 0.0% |
| 2019 | +31.2% | +31.2% | 0.0% |
| 2018 | -4.6% | -4.6% | 0.0% |
| 2017 | +21.7% | +21.7% | 0.0% |
| 2016 | +12.0% | +12.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015 | +1.2% | +1.2% | 0.0% |
| 2014 | +13.5% | +13.5% | 0.0% |
| 2013 | +32.3% | +32.3% | 0.0% |
| 2012 | +16.0% | +16.0% | 0.0% |
| 2011 | +1.9% | +1.9% | 0.0% |
| 2010 | +13.1% | +13.1% | 0.0% |
* Partial year. The first year starts on the first day of the replica; the current year is year to date.
Position as of 2026-11-10
| Holding | Weight |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | 100.0% |
| Cash (0%) | 0.0% |
This portfolio is never rebalanced, so the weights are whatever buy-and-hold has produced. Drawdown from its peak today: -3.7%.
What it did in 2020 and 2022
| Episode | Dates | Replica | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID crash | 2020-02-19 → 2020-03-23 | -33.7% | -33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | 2022-01-03 → 2022-10-12 | -24.5% | -24.5% |
Close to close between the two dates. Two episodes only: not enough to judge a strategy.
How much to trust it
- A fixed allocation has no signals, so it is one path of history (16.8 years), not a test.
- This is one backtest on one path of history, before costs and with hindsight on the choice of strategy. It does not show the strategy will work in future.
Honest caveat
A faithful stock-only version; the original lets investors hold a bond share by age.
Related
Other famous strategies
Markets used: S&P 500
Historical, hypothetical results before costs, taxes and fees. Not investment advice.