Bitcoin HODL: does it still work? Replicated through 2026
We re-ran it on Bitcoin from 2014-09-17 to 2026-11-10 (12.1 years, before costs): +52.0% a year, Sharpe 0.97, worst drawdown -83.4%. The benchmark, Bitcoin buy-and-hold, did +52.0% a year (Sharpe 0.97, worst drawdown -83.4%).
Verdict: About the same risk-adjusted return as its benchmark. Historical, hypothetical results before costs, taxes and fees. Not investment advice.
This replica applies the published rule as written, on the instrument we have. It is still a backtest on ETF data, before costs.
What is lost
- Bitcoin's earliest years (before 2014-09) are not in the data.
Where it comes from
The crypto community's defining mantra and the benchmark every crypto strategy has to beat.
Rules, weights and thresholds are given as commonly cited. We have not re-checked them against the primary text.
The original rules
Buy bitcoin and hold through volatility without trading.
How we replicate it
What we changed
100% BTC-USD from the first available date (2014-09), never rebalanced. History starts only in 2014, so the huge early Bitcoin gains are not in the sample.
The exact rule we run
Buy 100% BTC-USD on the first day of data and hold it. No rebalancing, no trading.
Target weights: 100.0% Bitcoin.
Conventions: Position decided at a close earns the next day's return; no look-ahead; before costs; cash earns 0%; starts 2014-09-17, when all its assets have data; weights drift between rebalances (never rebalanced); rebalanced at the last close of the period.
Growth of 1 vs the benchmark
Benchmark: Bitcoin buy-and-hold, same period. Bought on the first day and held.
Drawdown from the previous peak
Key numbers
Sample: 2014-09-17 to 2026-11-10, 12.1 years, 4438 daily observations. Annualised from the number of observations per year of the strategy's own calendar. Before costs.
Recent and full-period returns
| Period | Replica | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Last month | -11.1% | -11.1% |
| Last year | -30.5% | -30.5% |
| Last 5 years | +13.4% | +13.4% |
| Whole period (cumulative) | +16019.5% | +16019.5% |
Calendar-year returns
| Year | Replica | Benchmark | Replica minus benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | -15.8% | -15.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -6.3% | -6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | +121.1% | +121.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023 | +155.4% | +155.4% | 0.0% |
| 2022 | -64.3% | -64.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021 | +59.7% | +59.7% | 0.0% |
| 2020 | +303.2% | +303.2% | 0.0% |
| 2019 | +92.2% | +92.2% | 0.0% |
| 2018 | -73.6% | -73.6% | 0.0% |
| 2017 | +1368.9% | +1368.9% | 0.0% |
| 2016 | +123.8% | +123.8% | 0.0% |
| 2015 | +34.5% | +34.5% | 0.0% |
| 2014* | -30.0% | -30.0% | 0.0% |
* Partial year. The first year starts on the first day of the replica; the current year is year to date.
Position as of 2026-11-10
| Holding | Weight |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC-USD | 100.0% |
| Cash (0%) | 0.0% |
This portfolio is never rebalanced, so the weights are whatever buy-and-hold has produced. Drawdown from its peak today: -40.9%.
What it did in 2020 and 2022
| Episode | Dates | Replica | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID crash | 2020-02-19 → 2020-03-23 | -33.4% | -33.4% |
| 2022 bear market | 2022-01-03 → 2022-10-12 | -58.8% | -58.8% |
Close to close between the two dates. Two episodes only: not enough to judge a strategy.
How much to trust it
- A fixed allocation has no signals, so it is one path of history (12.1 years), not a test.
- This is one backtest on one path of history, before costs and with hindsight on the choice of strategy. It does not show the strategy will work in future.
Honest caveat
A faithful replica of a passive idea, but the origin of the term (a 2013 forum post) is given as commonly cited.
Related
Other famous strategies
Markets used: Bitcoin
Historical, hypothetical results before costs, taxes and fees. Not investment advice.