Mayer Multiple (BTC price / 200-day MA < 2.4): does it still work? Replicated through 2026
We re-ran it on Bitcoin from 2015-04-04 to 2026-11-10 (11.6 years, before costs): +62.9% a year, Sharpe 1.09, worst drawdown -78.7%. The benchmark, Bitcoin buy-and-hold, did +63.0% a year (Sharpe 1.08, worst drawdown -83.4%).
Verdict: About the same risk-adjusted return as its benchmark. Historical, hypothetical results before costs, taxes and fees. Not investment advice.
The originator never published a numeric rule. The parameters here are ours, an illustration of the idea. Do not read these results as the originator's results.
What is lost
- The Mayer Multiple is an accumulation guide, not a trading system; turning it into sell-to-cash is our own step.
- The 2.4 threshold is as popularly quoted and the original publication is unverified.
Where it comes from
The best-known simple valuation gauge for bitcoin tops and bottoms.
Rules, weights and thresholds are given as commonly cited. We have not re-checked them against the primary text.
The original rules
Mayer Multiple = bitcoin price divided by its 200-day moving average; he suggested accumulating when it is below 2.4 and treating readings above 2.4 as overheated.
How we replicate it
What we changed
Original is an accumulation guide, not a trading system; we make it a binary rule: hold BTC when the multiple is below 2.4, otherwise cash.
The exact rule we run
Every day at the close: M = BTC-USD close divided by the average of its last 200 closes. If M is below 2.4, hold 100% BTC-USD, otherwise 100% cash.
Conventions: Position decided at a close earns the next day's return; no look-ahead; before costs; cash earns 0%; starts 2015-04-04, the first day a signal exists; every market has an equal slot of equity; indicators use each market's own trading days.
Growth of 1 vs the benchmark
Benchmark: Bitcoin buy-and-hold, same period. Bought on the first day and held.
Drawdown from the previous peak
Key numbers
Sample: 2015-04-04 to 2026-11-10, 11.6 years, 4239 daily observations. Annualised from the number of observations per year of the strategy's own calendar. Before costs.
Recent and full-period returns
| Period | Replica | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Last month | -11.1% | -11.1% |
| Last year | -30.5% | -30.5% |
| Last 5 years | +13.4% | +13.4% |
| Whole period (cumulative) | +28760.2% | +28958.3% |
Calendar-year returns
| Year | Replica | Benchmark | Replica minus benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | -15.8% | -15.8% | -0.0% |
| 2025 | -6.3% | -6.3% | -0.0% |
| 2024 | +121.1% | +121.1% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | +155.4% | +155.4% | -0.0% |
| 2022 | -64.3% | -64.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021 | +61.2% | +59.7% | +1.5% |
| 2020 | +303.2% | +303.2% | -0.0% |
| 2019 | +123.7% | +92.2% | +31.5% |
| 2018 | -72.8% | -73.6% | +0.7% |
| 2017 | +1107.6% | +1368.9% | -261.3% |
| 2016 | +123.8% | +123.8% | 0.0% |
| 2015* | +69.7% | +69.7% | 0.0% |
* Partial year. The first year starts on the first day of the replica; the current year is year to date.
Position as of 2026-11-10
| Holding | Weight |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC-USD | 100.0% |
| Cash (0%) | 0.0% |
Last change of position: 2021-03-14. Drawdown from its peak today: -40.9%.
What it did in 2020 and 2022
| Episode | Dates | Replica | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID crash | 2020-02-19 → 2020-03-23 | -33.4% | -33.4% |
| 2022 bear market | 2022-01-03 → 2022-10-12 | -58.8% | -58.8% |
Close to close between the two dates. Two episodes only: not enough to judge a strategy.
How much to trust it
- The rule changed its position only 20 times: with so few signals the results are anecdotal.
- This is one backtest on one path of history, before costs and with hindsight on the choice of strategy. It does not show the strategy will work in future.
Honest caveat
The 2.4 threshold is as popularly quoted; turning an accumulation guide into a sell-to-cash rule is our own adaptation.
Related
Other famous strategies
Markets used: Bitcoin
Historical, hypothetical results before costs, taxes and fees. Not investment advice.