Claim check: Golden cross and death cross
“A golden cross (50-day MA crossing above the 200-day) is bullish; a death cross is bearish.”
What the data says
Partly Partly: days spent in the position earned more than days outside it in 8 of 10 markets (2010-10-07 to 2026-11-10); the gap was statistically clear and had the same sign in both halves in 0, and the median gap was +7.8% a year. The direction mostly points the claimed way, but not strongly enough to be sure.
It holds in some markets or periods, leans the right way without proof, or helps on risk but not on return.
Who says it
Chart-pattern staple on CNBC and Investopedia, repeated every time the S&P 500 prints a cross.
Origins are as commonly cited and were not independently verified.
How we tested it
We hold the market from the day after the 50-day average closes above the 200-day average (golden state) and stay out from the day after it closes below (death state). The claim says the golden state is bullish, so the test asks whether days spent in the golden state earned more than days spent outside it (difference of means, Welch t-stat), and whether that holds in both halves of each market's history. Separately we look at the 63-trading-day return after each cross itself.
Results
| Market | Period | CAGR | Buy and hold | Sharpe | Buy and hold | Max drawdown | Buy and hold | In market | Trades | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +9.6% | +14.2% | 0.71 | 0.87 | -34% | -34% | 84% | 8 | No effect |
| Gold | 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +5.0% | +6.5% | 0.43 | 0.46 | -35% | -46% | 63% | 12 | Full history only |
| Silver | 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +4.6% | +4.2% | 0.31 | 0.29 | -59% | -76% | 47% | 11 | Full history only |
| Oil | 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | -1.4% | -4.4% | 0.06 | 0.06 | -71% | -95% | 50% | 17 | Full history only |
| Natural gas | 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | -2.1% | -23.1% | 0.07 | -0.29 | -50% | -99% | 25% | 9 | Full history only |
| Commodities | 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +3.4% | +2.3% | 0.32 | 0.22 | -45% | -66% | 54% | 12 | Full history only |
| Agriculture | 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +1.9% | +0.4% | 0.24 | 0.10 | -42% | -62% | 46% | 10 | Full history only |
| EUR/USD | 2010-10-07 → 2026-11-10 | -0.7% | -1.3% | -0.10 | -0.12 | -20% | -35% | 47% | 13 | No effect |
| Bitcoin | 2015-04-04 → 2026-11-10 | +52.3% | +63.0% | 0.87 | 0.90 | -69% | -83% | 61% | 11 | Full history only |
| Ether | 2018-05-27 → 2026-11-10 | +23.4% | +16.3% | 0.55 | 0.50 | -78% | -86% | 51% | 9 | Full history only |
| Market | Days in / out of position | Edge per year | t-stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 3398 / 642 | -16.4% | -1.1 |
| Gold | 2528 / 1512 | +4.3% | 0.5 |
| Silver | 1900 / 2140 | +14.2% | 0.9 |
| Oil | 2011 / 2029 | +0.5% | 0.0 |
| Natural gas | 1012 / 3028 | +28.6% | 0.9 |
| Commodities | 2179 / 1861 | +8.6% | 1.0 |
| Agriculture | 1873 / 2167 | +7.1% | 1.1 |
| EUR/USD | 1966 / 2222 | -0.4% | -0.1 |
| Bitcoin | 2585 / 1653 | +41.8% | 1.6 |
| Ether | 1587 / 1502 | +39.7% | 1.0 |
Mean return in position minus out, per year
Stability across the two halves of history
A saying that only works in one half of the history is not much of a rule. Each row shows the effect in the full history, the first half and the second half; green means the claimed effect was present.
| Market | Full history | First half | Second half |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -16.4% 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | -20.5% 2010-10-18 → 2018-10-25 | -13.2% 2018-10-25 → 2026-11-10 |
| Gold | +4.3% 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | -0.2% 2010-10-18 → 2018-10-25 | +1.0% 2018-10-25 → 2026-11-10 |
| Silver | +14.2% 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +24.0% 2010-10-18 → 2018-10-25 | -10.9% 2018-10-25 → 2026-11-10 |
| Oil | +0.5% 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +0.4% 2010-10-18 → 2018-10-25 | -1.2% 2018-10-25 → 2026-11-10 |
| Natural gas | +28.6% 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +7.8% 2010-10-18 → 2018-10-25 | +48.8% 2018-10-25 → 2026-11-10 |
| Commodities | +8.6% 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +5.5% 2010-10-18 → 2018-10-25 | +10.0% 2018-10-25 → 2026-11-10 |
| Agriculture | +7.1% 2010-10-18 → 2026-11-10 | +0.3% 2010-10-18 → 2018-10-25 | +4.3% 2018-10-25 → 2026-11-10 |
| EUR/USD | -0.4% 2010-10-07 → 2026-11-10 | +0.3% 2010-10-07 → 2018-10-23 | -0.6% 2018-10-23 → 2026-11-10 |
| Bitcoin | +41.8% 2015-04-04 → 2026-11-10 | +69.2% 2015-04-04 → 2021-01-21 | +5.9% 2021-01-21 → 2026-11-10 |
| Ether | +39.7% 2018-05-27 → 2026-11-10 | +98.2% 2018-05-27 → 2022-08-19 | -20.0% 2022-08-19 → 2026-11-10 |
Context and cross-checks
Shown for context; not part of the verdict.
Forward returns after the crosses
After a golden cross 63-day (claim: higher than average)
| Market | Events | Mean after | All days | Difference | Median after | Up share | t-stat | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7 | +3.9% | +3.6% | +0.3% | +3.9% | 86% | 0.3 (likely noise) | Too little data |
| Gold | 10 | +0.4% | +2.2% | -1.8% | +0.3% | 50% | -1.0 (likely noise) | No effect |
| Silver | 9 | +0.7% | +3.1% | -2.4% | -1.9% | 44% | -0.4 (likely noise) | Too little data |
| Oil | 17 | +1.4% | +1.1% | +0.3% | -0.1% | 47% | 0.1 (likely noise) | Right way, likely noise |
| Natural gas | 9 | +12.9% | -4.4% | +17.3% | +0.8% | 56% | 1.5 (likely noise) | Too little data |
| Commodities | 11 | -3.3% | +1.2% | -4.5% | -1.3% | 36% | -1.3 (likely noise) | No effect |
| Agriculture | 9 | -1.5% | +0.6% | -2.1% | -1.8% | 33% | -1.0 (likely noise) | Too little data |
| EUR/USD | 12 | -0.1% | -0.2% | +0.1% | +0.4% | 50% | 0.1 (likely noise) | Right way, likely noise |
| Bitcoin | 11 | +23.0% | +13.5% | +9.5% | +25.3% | 73% | 0.7 (likely noise) | Right way, likely noise |
| Ether | 9 | +17.8% | +11.0% | +6.8% | +15.7% | 67% | 0.5 (likely noise) | Too little data |
After a death cross · For comparison 63-day (claim: lower than average)
| Market | Events | Mean after | All days | Difference | Median after | Up share | t-stat | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7 | +8.3% | +3.6% | +4.7% | +7.1% | 86% | 1.1 (likely noise) | Too little data |
| Gold | 12 | +0.6% | +2.2% | -1.6% | +1.8% | 58% | -0.9 (likely noise) | Right way, likely noise |
| Silver | 11 | +4.6% | +3.1% | +1.5% | +2.8% | 64% | 0.3 (likely noise) | No effect |
| Oil | 15 | -1.0% | +1.1% | -2.1% | +5.7% | 67% | -0.3 (likely noise) | Right way, likely noise |
| Natural gas | 9 | +1.8% | -4.4% | +6.2% | 0.0% | 44% | 0.5 (likely noise) | Too little data |
| Commodities | 11 | -0.1% | +1.2% | -1.3% | +1.5% | 73% | -0.6 (likely noise) | Right way, likely noise |
| Agriculture | 9 | -1.9% | +0.6% | -2.5% | -0.9% | 22% | -2.0 (likely noise) | Too little data |
| EUR/USD | 11 | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -1.1% | 27% | -0.3 (likely noise) | Right way, likely noise |
| Bitcoin | 10 | +18.4% | +13.5% | +4.8% | +23.4% | 70% | 0.7 (likely noise) | No effect |
| Ether | 8 | +10.5% | +11.0% | -0.5% | +10.2% | 62% | -0.1 (likely noise) | Too little data |
The site's own strategies
| Strategy | Market | Sharpe, 5 years | Benchmark, 5 years | Sharpe, full | Benchmark, full | CAGR, full | Benchmark, full | Max DD, full | Benchmark, full | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | SPY | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.85 | +9.1% | +13.8% | -34% | -34% | No effect |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | GLD | 0.76 | 0.89 | 0.42 | 0.51 | +4.8% | +7.5% | -35% | -46% | No effect |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | EUR/USD | -0.21 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.13 | -0.7% | -1.5% | -20% | -35% | Full history only |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | USO | 0.31 | 0.68 | 0.05 | 0.05 | -1.4% | -4.8% | -71% | -95% | Full history only |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | DBC | 0.52 | 0.63 | 0.31 | 0.21 | +3.2% | +2.2% | -45% | -66% | Full history only |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | SLV | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 0.35 | +4.4% | +6.1% | -59% | -76% | No effect |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | DBA | 0.61 | 0.68 | 0.23 | 0.13 | +1.8% | +0.8% | -42% | -62% | Full history only |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | UNG | 0.06 | -0.27 | 0.06 | -0.35 | -2.0% | -25.1% | -50% | -99% | Clear and stable |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | BTC | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.85 | 0.80 | +49.4% | +52.0% | -69% | -83% | Full history only |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | ETH | -0.12 | 0.09 | 0.53 | 0.56 | +21.9% | +22.9% | -78% | -94% | No effect |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | SPY | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.85 | +10.5% | +13.8% | -34% | -34% | No effect |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | GLD | 0.81 | 0.89 | 0.43 | 0.51 | +4.9% | +7.5% | -38% | -46% | No effect |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | USO | 0.42 | 0.68 | 0.07 | 0.05 | -1.3% | -4.8% | -75% | -95% | Full history only |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | EUR/USD | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.13 | -0.2% | -1.5% | -14% | -35% | Full history only |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | DBC | 0.54 | 0.63 | 0.24 | 0.21 | +2.4% | +2.2% | -52% | -66% | Full history only |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | SLV | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.24 | 0.35 | +2.8% | +6.1% | -70% | -76% | No effect |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | DBA | 0.69 | 0.68 | 0.22 | 0.13 | +1.7% | +0.8% | -46% | -62% | Clear and stable |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | UNG | -0.05 | -0.27 | -0.05 | -0.35 | -5.1% | -25.1% | -70% | -99% | Clear and stable |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | BTC | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.85 | 0.80 | +49.3% | +52.0% | -68% | -83% | Full history only |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | ETH | -0.33 | 0.09 | 0.54 | 0.56 | +23.0% | +22.9% | -78% | -94% | No effect |
Sharpe ratio minus benchmark, full history · Benchmark = the buy-and-hold shown on the strategy pages.
The honest caveat
Crosses are rare (a handful per market) so event-study results rest on very few independent observations.
Descriptive statistics from historical data, before costs. Not a forecast and not investment advice.
Questions
A golden cross (50-day MA crossing above the 200-day) is bullish; a death cross is bearish.
Partly: days spent in the position earned more than days outside it in 8 of 10 markets (2010-10-07 to 2026-11-10); the gap was statistically clear and had the same sign in both halves in 0, and the median gap was +7.8% a year. The direction mostly points the claimed way, but not strongly enough to be sure.
How was this claim tested?
We hold the market from the day after the 50-day average closes above the 200-day average (golden state) and stay out from the day after it closes below (death state). The claim says the golden state is bullish, so the test asks whether days spent in the golden state earned more than days spent outside it (difference of means, Welch t-stat), and whether that holds in both halves of each market's history. Separately we look at the 63-trading-day return after each cross itself.
Related strategies on Quant Arena
Markets used
S&P 500 · Gold · Silver · Oil · Natural gas · Commodities · Agriculture · EUR/USD · Bitcoin · Ether