Sell-off (auto) Gold

Gold sell-off, September 2026

This page was generated automatically. Our scan flagged Gold on 2026-09-28 after its close fell 5% or more below its trailing 60-day high. The measured move runs from 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-30. We have not written up the background yet.

Window found by the automatic scan: 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-30.

Market move-13.3%2026-09-03 to 2026-10-30
Window40 trading days
Back at the prior peakNot yet
Next 3 months—63 trading days after the end
Strategies lost less100%56 / 56
Already out going in57%32 / 56

Price around the event

86%91%96%100%105%2026-072026-082026-092026-102026-11
Gold · window start = 100%; shaded = event window; from 60 trading days before to 120 after

How the strategies did

Of 56 rule-based strategies with a curve on Gold, 32 (57%) were already out of the market going in. 56 (100%) lost less than the market (-13.3%), 5 (9%) finished the window with a gain, and the median strategy returned -2.4%. Strategies that were in the market returned a median -3.4%; those that were already out returned 0.0%.

FamilyStrategiesAlready outMedian returnLost less than the market
Trend2450%-1.3%100%
Momentum450%-3.5%100%
Mean reversion1479%-2.1%100%
Volatility650%-4.7%100%
Regime & other850%-0.8%100%

56 of 72 strategies have a curve on Gold. Portfolio, basket and multi-asset strategies without one are excluded.

All strategies on Gold

StrategyFamilyReturn in windowIn the market going in?Max drawdown in windowNext 3 months
MR-01 RSI Mean ReversionMean reversion+3.8%Out-0.6%—
MR-12 Money Flow Index ReversionMean reversion+3.5%Out-2.2%—
TREND-14 Linear Regression ChannelTrend+3.2%Out-2.4%—
MR-16 Connors RSIMean reversion+1.8%In0.0%—
MR-06 Z-Score Mean ReversionMean reversion+1.8%Out-1.8%—
ADX-01 ADX Trend FilterTrend0.0%In0.0%—
COMBO-03 Divergence StrategyRegime & other0.0%Out0.0%—
COMBO-04 Trend + Mean Reversion HybridTrend0.0%Out0.0%—
EVENT-01 Trend + Macro FilterTrend0.0%Out0.0%—
KC-01 Keltner Channel BreakoutTrend0.0%Out0.0%—
MOM-03 52-Week High MomentumMomentum0.0%Out0.0%—
MR-02 Bollinger Band ReversionMean reversion0.0%Out0.0%—
MR-13 TRIX ReversionMean reversion0.0%Out0.0%—
REG-01 Regime SwitchRegime & other0.0%Out0.0%—
SEAS-01 Monthly SeasonalityRegime & other0.0%Out0.0%—
SUPER-01 SupertrendTrend0.0%Out0.0%—
TAIL-01 Crisis AlphaRegime & other0.0%Out0.0%—
TREND-05 Dual Moving AverageTrend0.0%Out0.0%—
TREND-11 Kaufman Adaptive Moving AverageTrend0.0%Out0.0%—
TREND-13 Triple Moving AverageTrend0.0%Out0.0%—
TREND-19 Elder Triple ScreenTrend0.0%Out0.0%—
TURTLE-01 Turtle TradingTrend0.0%In0.0%—
VOL-01 Volatility BreakoutVolatility0.0%Out0.0%—
MR-07 Hurst-Filtered Mean ReversionMean reversion-0.6%Out-4.7%—
TREND-20 Vortex IndicatorTrend-0.8%In-0.8%—
REG-10 HMM Regime DetectionRegime & other-1.7%In-2.6%—
TREND-17 Chandelier ExitTrend-1.7%In-1.7%—
COMBO-01 Bollinger-Keltner SqueezeVolatility-2.2%Out-2.2%—
TREND-18 Coppock CurveTrend-2.6%In-2.6%—
MOM-10 Accelerating MomentumTrend-2.7%In-2.7%—
TREND-16 Aroon IndicatorTrend-2.9%In-4.5%—
RISK-01 Drawdown ControlRegime & other-3.1%In-3.1%—
TREND-02 Donchian BreakoutTrend-3.4%In-3.4%—
TREND-10 Ichimoku CloudTrend-3.4%In-3.4%—
MOM-11 Momentum Crash ProtectionMomentum-3.5%In-3.5%—
COMBO-02 MACD + RSI FilterMomentum-3.6%In-3.6%—
TREND-12 MACD StrategyTrend-3.6%In-3.6%—
MR-04 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Mean ReversionMean reversion-3.6%Out-4.7%—
VOL-13 Volatility Regime StrategyVolatility-3.8%In-3.8%—
MOM-06 Residual MomentumMomentum-3.9%Out-5.8%—
TREND-15 Darvas BoxTrend-4.2%In-4.2%—
RP-01 Volatility TargetVolatility-5.5%In-5.5%—
SAR-01 Parabolic SARTrend-5.6%Out-5.6%—
MR-03 Kalman Filter Mean ReversionMean reversion-5.9%Out-7.5%—
RISK-03 Stop Loss OverlayRegime & other-6.0%In-6.0%—
MR-15 Ultimate OscillatorMean reversion-6.3%Out-8.0%—
MR-14 Detrended Price OscillatorMean reversion-7.2%Out-7.2%—
VOL-10 Volatility Risk PremiumVolatility-7.6%Out-9.7%—
CAL-01 Turn of MonthRegime & other-7.8%In-7.8%—
MR-10 Stochastic Oscillator ReversionMean reversion-8.1%In-8.1%—
MR-05 CCI Mean ReversionMean reversion-8.4%Out-9.5%—
REG-14 Volatility Regime SwitchVolatility-8.8%In-8.8%—
RISK-04 Trailing Stop StrategyTrend-8.9%Out-8.9%—
HMA-01 HMA CrossoverTrend-9.2%Out-9.2%—
MR-11 Williams %R ReversionMean reversion-11.1%In-11.1%—
MOM-01 Time-Series MomentumTrend-12.9%In-12.9%—

Sorted by return in the window, best first. "In the market" is inferred from the equity curve (see method). Next 3 months = 63 trading days after the window end.

All event replays · Today's regime on Gold

Method: windows are snapped to the price data, returns come from the published equity curves before costs, and "already out" is inferred from the curve. See the method on the hub page. Historical, descriptive statistics before trading costs. Not a forecast and not investment advice.

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