2024-2025 gold rally
Gold climbed from the start of 2024 to successive record highs in 2025. Central-bank buying, geopolitical tension and expectations of Fed rate cuts drove the rally.
Dates checked against the price data: researched window 2024-01-02 to 2025-10-20; measured 2023-12-12 to 2025-10-20 (start shifted by -21 days, end by +0 days).
Price around the event
How the strategies did
Of 56 rule-based strategies with a curve on Gold, 21 (38%) were not in the market going in. 3 (5%) beat the market (+119.7%), 51 (91%) finished the window with a gain, and the median strategy returned +39.9%. Strategies that were in the market returned a median +55.9%; those that were already out returned +7.6%. In the following three months the median strategy returned +3.9%.
| Family | Strategies | Not in the market | Median return | Beat the market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend | 24 | 21% | +58.8% | |
| Momentum | 4 | 50% | +73.2% | |
| Mean reversion | 14 | 71% | +8.4% | |
| Volatility | 6 | 17% | +46.3% | |
| Regime & other | 8 | 38% | +34.8% |
Best five
| Strategy | Return in window |
|---|---|
| REG-01 Regime Switch | +120.5% |
| MOM-01 Time-Series Momentum | +119.7% |
| MOM-03 52-Week High Momentum | +119.7% |
| RISK-01 Drawdown Control | +119.7% |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | +119.7% |
Worst five
| Strategy | Return in window |
|---|---|
| TAIL-01 Crisis Alpha | -8.2% |
| TREND-19 Elder Triple Screen | 0.0% |
| MR-13 TRIX Reversion | 0.0% |
| MR-03 Kalman Filter Mean Reversion | 0.0% |
| COMBO-03 Divergence Strategy | 0.0% |
56 of 72 strategies have a curve on Gold. Portfolio, basket and multi-asset strategies without one are excluded.
All strategies on Gold
| Strategy | Family | Return in window | In the market going in? | Max drawdown in window | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REG-01 Regime Switch | Regime & other | +120.5% | In | -8.1% | +6.6% |
| MOM-01 Time-Series Momentum | Trend | +119.7% | In | -8.1% | +10.0% |
| MOM-03 52-Week High Momentum | Momentum | +119.7% | In | -8.1% | +10.0% |
| RISK-01 Drawdown Control | Regime & other | +119.7% | In | -8.1% | +9.6% |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | Trend | +119.7% | In | -8.1% | +10.0% |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | Trend | +111.4% | Out | -8.1% | +10.0% |
| MOM-10 Accelerating Momentum | Trend | +100.3% | In | -7.7% | +9.8% |
| EVENT-01 Trend + Macro Filter | Trend | +98.5% | In | -12.4% | +8.6% |
| MOM-11 Momentum Crash Protection | Momentum | +95.0% | Out | -8.1% | +9.7% |
| TREND-15 Darvas Box | Trend | +87.0% | In | -11.1% | +10.0% |
| TREND-18 Coppock Curve | Trend | +82.9% | In | -7.6% | +3.5% |
| RISK-03 Stop Loss Overlay | Regime & other | +79.3% | In | -9.2% | +10.0% |
| REG-14 Volatility Regime Switch | Volatility | +72.0% | In | -5.2% | +11.9% |
| TREND-10 Ichimoku Cloud | Trend | +70.9% | In | -9.4% | +4.7% |
| SAR-01 Parabolic SAR | Trend | +69.9% | In | -11.3% | +3.6% |
| RISK-04 Trailing Stop Strategy | Trend | +67.5% | In | -9.9% | +3.9% |
| RP-01 Volatility Target | Volatility | +67.4% | In | -4.7% | +5.5% |
| TREND-02 Donchian Breakout | Trend | +63.1% | In | -11.5% | -2.3% |
| TREND-20 Vortex Indicator | Trend | +61.6% | In | -9.3% | +5.5% |
| TREND-16 Aroon Indicator | Trend | +55.9% | Out | -7.2% | +8.2% |
| TREND-17 Chandelier Exit | Trend | +55.9% | In | -12.3% | +6.1% |
| VOL-13 Volatility Regime Strategy | Volatility | +54.4% | In | -5.2% | +8.7% |
| SUPER-01 Supertrend | Trend | +52.1% | In | -14.0% | +1.4% |
| MOM-06 Residual Momentum | Momentum | +51.3% | In | -8.1% | +10.0% |
| HMA-01 HMA Crossover | Trend | +44.9% | Out | -14.2% | +4.8% |
| TREND-11 Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average | Trend | +44.9% | In | -12.1% | +0.2% |
| TREND-12 MACD Strategy | Trend | +42.0% | In | -10.2% | +0.4% |
| TURTLE-01 Turtle Trading | Trend | +41.7% | In | -9.7% | -1.8% |
| VOL-10 Volatility Risk Premium | Volatility | +38.2% | In | -5.6% | +16.6% |
| COMBO-01 Bollinger-Keltner Squeeze | Volatility | +38.0% | In | -6.0% | -2.4% |
| SEAS-01 Monthly Seasonality | Regime & other | +37.3% | In | -9.4% | +20.3% |
| MR-10 Stochastic Oscillator Reversion | Mean reversion | +33.6% | In | -5.2% | +5.7% |
| KC-01 Keltner Channel Breakout | Trend | +33.4% | In | -11.0% | -6.6% |
| MR-11 Williams %R Reversion | Mean reversion | +32.8% | In | -5.2% | +6.9% |
| REG-10 HMM Regime Detection | Regime & other | +32.4% | In | -11.0% | -0.5% |
| ADX-01 ADX Trend Filter | Trend | +30.4% | In | -8.6% | +1.1% |
| MR-05 CCI Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | +25.5% | Out | -4.4% | +3.8% |
| MR-15 Ultimate Oscillator | Mean reversion | +22.9% | Out | -2.3% | +4.2% |
| CAL-01 Turn of Month | Regime & other | +22.7% | Out | -7.9% | +0.4% |
| MR-14 Detrended Price Oscillator | Mean reversion | +19.0% | In | -9.1% | -4.5% |
| VOL-01 Volatility Breakout | Volatility | +18.7% | Out | -3.8% | -8.4% |
| MR-16 Connors RSI | Mean reversion | +10.3% | In | -2.4% | +1.6% |
| MR-06 Z-Score Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | +9.2% | Out | -2.3% | 0.0% |
| COMBO-04 Trend + Mean Reversion Hybrid | Trend | +9.1% | Out | -3.9% | 0.0% |
| MR-12 Money Flow Index Reversion | Mean reversion | +7.6% | Out | -2.9% | +4.4% |
| MR-07 Hurst-Filtered Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | +5.0% | Out | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| TREND-14 Linear Regression Channel | Trend | +4.6% | In | -18.3% | -9.4% |
| MR-01 RSI Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | +4.3% | Out | -0.4% | +2.7% |
| MR-02 Bollinger Band Reversion | Mean reversion | +4.1% | Out | -1.4% | 0.0% |
| COMBO-02 MACD + RSI Filter | Momentum | +3.5% | Out | -6.2% | +5.5% |
| MR-04 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | +1.1% | Out | -2.1% | 0.0% |
| COMBO-03 Divergence Strategy | Regime & other | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MR-03 Kalman Filter Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MR-13 TRIX Reversion | Mean reversion | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TREND-19 Elder Triple Screen | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TAIL-01 Crisis Alpha | Regime & other | -8.2% | Out | -9.1% | -2.5% |
Sorted by return in the window, best first. "In the market" is inferred from the equity curve (see method). Next 3 months = 63 trading days after the window end.
Other markets in the same window
| Market | Move | Strategies | Ahead of the market | Already out | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver | +129.0% | 56 | 2% | 57% | +40.6% |
Same calendar window as the main market. "Ahead of the market" = strategy return above the market's return over the window.
Method: windows are snapped to the price data, returns come from the published equity curves before costs, and "already out" is inferred from the curve. See the method on the hub page. Historical, descriptive statistics before trading costs. Not a forecast and not investment advice.