April 2025 tariff sell-off
Sweeping US tariffs announced in early April triggered a global sell-off. Gold and bitcoin both rose at times as investors searched for havens, before a partial policy reversal.
Dates checked against the price data: researched window 2025-04-02 to 2025-04-08; measured 2025-03-25 to 2025-04-08 (start shifted by -8 days, end by +0 days).
Price around the event
How the strategies did
Of 62 rule-based strategies with a curve on S&P 500, 33 (53%) were already out of the market going in. 61 (98%) lost less than the market (-13.7%), 1 (2%) finished the window with a gain, and the median strategy returned -1.7%. Strategies that were in the market returned a median -6.7%; those that were already out returned 0.0%. In the following three months the median strategy returned +7.7%.
| Family | Strategies | Already out | Median return | Lost less than the market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend | 24 | 58% | -0.6% | |
| Momentum | 4 | 25% | -9.4% | |
| Mean reversion | 15 | 73% | -1.7% | |
| Volatility | 6 | 33% | -4.0% | |
| Regime & other | 13 | 38% | -1.2% |
Best five
| Strategy | Return in window |
|---|---|
| TREND-14 Linear Regression Channel | +1.8% |
| ADX-01 ADX Trend Filter | 0.0% |
| COMBO-03 Divergence Strategy | 0.0% |
| KC-01 Keltner Channel Breakout | 0.0% |
| MOM-06 Residual Momentum | 0.0% |
Worst five
| Strategy | Return in window |
|---|---|
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | -13.7% |
| SEAS-01 Monthly Seasonality | -13.7% |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | -13.7% |
| RISK-01 Drawdown Control | -13.3% |
| MOM-01 Time-Series Momentum | -12.2% |
62 of 72 strategies have a curve on S&P 500. Portfolio, basket and multi-asset strategies without one are excluded.
All strategies on S&P 500
| Strategy | Family | Return in window | In the market going in? | Max drawdown in window | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREND-14 Linear Regression Channel | Trend | +1.8% | In | 0.0% | -10.5% |
| ADX-01 ADX Trend Filter | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| COMBO-03 Divergence Strategy | Regime & other | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KC-01 Keltner Channel Breakout | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +7.7% |
| MOM-06 Residual Momentum | Momentum | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +4.6% |
| MOM-10 Accelerating Momentum | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +5.4% |
| MR-04 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MR-07 Hurst-Filtered Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MR-13 TRIX Reversion | Mean reversion | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| REG-10 HMM Regime Detection | Regime & other | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +11.5% |
| REG-14 Volatility Regime Switch | Volatility | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +7.3% |
| RISK-03 Stop Loss Overlay | Regime & other | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +13.9% |
| SUPER-01 Supertrend | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +10.7% |
| TAIL-01 Crisis Alpha | Regime & other | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | -3.7% |
| TREND-02 Donchian Breakout | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +5.6% |
| TREND-10 Ichimoku Cloud | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +12.3% |
| TREND-11 Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +15.6% |
| TREND-15 Darvas Box | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +10.7% |
| TREND-16 Aroon Indicator | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +10.7% |
| TREND-19 Elder Triple Screen | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TURTLE-01 Turtle Trading | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | +10.8% |
| VOL-01 Volatility Breakout | Volatility | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | -3.3% |
| MR-02 Bollinger Band Reversion | Mean reversion | -0.2% | Out | -0.2% | +3.5% |
| STAT-10 Dynamic Hedge Ratio Pairs | Regime & other | -0.2% | In | -1.5% | +5.0% |
| MR-16 Connors RSI | Mean reversion | -1.1% | Out | -1.7% | +12.1% |
| MACRO-02 Risk-On/Risk-Off Switch | Regime & other | -1.2% | In | -5.0% | +13.5% |
| MACRO-03 Flight to Quality | Regime & other | -1.2% | In | -5.0% | +13.4% |
| REG-01 Regime Switch | Regime & other | -1.2% | In | -1.2% | +0.9% |
| TREND-17 Chandelier Exit | Trend | -1.2% | In | -1.2% | +7.2% |
| STAT-11 Cointegration Basket | Mean reversion | -1.4% | Out | -1.6% | +2.2% |
| MR-12 Money Flow Index Reversion | Mean reversion | -1.7% | Out | -1.7% | +7.8% |
| MR-01 RSI Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -1.7% | Out | -1.7% | +10.5% |
| EVENT-01 Trend + Macro Filter | Trend | -2.5% | In | -3.4% | +4.5% |
| TREND-20 Vortex Indicator | Trend | -2.8% | Out | -3.4% | +15.7% |
| HMA-01 HMA Crossover | Trend | -3.4% | In | -3.4% | +3.2% |
| COMBO-04 Trend + Mean Reversion Hybrid | Trend | -3.4% | In | -3.4% | 0.0% |
| RISK-04 Trailing Stop Strategy | Trend | -3.4% | Out | -3.4% | +13.7% |
| SAR-01 Parabolic SAR | Trend | -3.4% | In | -3.4% | +13.3% |
| MR-14 Detrended Price Oscillator | Mean reversion | -3.4% | In | -3.4% | +0.9% |
| COMBO-01 Bollinger-Keltner Squeeze | Volatility | -3.4% | In | -3.4% | +2.3% |
| VOL-13 Volatility Regime Strategy | Volatility | -4.5% | In | -4.5% | +15.8% |
| MACRO-01 Cross-Asset Momentum | Regime & other | -5.1% | In | -6.4% | +19.7% |
| TREND-18 Coppock Curve | Trend | -5.6% | Out | -5.6% | +14.8% |
| CAL-01 Turn of Month | Regime & other | -5.6% | Out | -5.6% | +6.3% |
| VOL-10 Volatility Risk Premium | Volatility | -6.7% | In | -6.7% | +6.8% |
| TREND-12 MACD Strategy | Trend | -6.7% | In | -6.7% | +7.1% |
| COMBO-02 MACD + RSI Filter | Momentum | -6.7% | In | -6.7% | +5.4% |
| MR-05 CCI Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -7.3% | In | -7.3% | +4.2% |
| RP-01 Volatility Target | Volatility | -7.4% | In | -7.4% | +12.9% |
| MR-15 Ultimate Oscillator | Mean reversion | -7.5% | Out | -7.5% | +10.5% |
| MR-06 Z-Score Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -7.5% | In | -7.5% | +10.5% |
| FACTOR-05 Multi-Factor Composite | Regime & other | -8.8% | In | -9.1% | +16.5% |
| MR-10 Stochastic Oscillator Reversion | Mean reversion | -10.6% | Out | -12.1% | +10.5% |
| MR-11 Williams %R Reversion | Mean reversion | -10.6% | In | -12.1% | +10.1% |
| MR-03 Kalman Filter Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -10.7% | Out | -12.1% | +10.9% |
| MOM-11 Momentum Crash Protection | Momentum | -12.1% | In | -12.1% | +4.4% |
| MOM-03 52-Week High Momentum | Momentum | -12.2% | In | -12.2% | +7.7% |
| MOM-01 Time-Series Momentum | Trend | -12.2% | In | -12.2% | +14.4% |
| RISK-01 Drawdown Control | Regime & other | -13.3% | In | -13.3% | +22.4% |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | Trend | -13.7% | In | -13.7% | +7.8% |
| SEAS-01 Monthly Seasonality | Regime & other | -13.7% | In | -13.7% | +12.5% |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | Trend | -13.7% | In | -13.7% | +18.2% |
Sorted by return in the window, best first. "In the market" is inferred from the equity curve (see method). Next 3 months = 63 trading days after the window end.
Other markets in the same window
| Market | Move | Strategies | Ahead of the market | Already out | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | -1.2% | 56 | 73% | 38% | 0.0% |
| Bitcoin | -12.8% | 56 | 96% | 57% | -0.7% |
Same calendar window as the main market. "Ahead of the market" = strategy return above the market's return over the window.
Method: windows are snapped to the price data, returns come from the published equity curves before costs, and "already out" is inferred from the curve. See the method on the hub page. Historical, descriptive statistics before trading costs. Not a forecast and not investment advice.