October 2025 crypto liquidation and slide
Bitcoin peaked in early October and a sharp leveraged liquidation cascade erased large amounts of derivatives positions. Prices then drifted lower into late November.
Dates checked against the price data: researched window 2025-10-06 to 2025-11-21; measured 2025-10-06 to 2025-11-22 (start shifted by +0 days, end by +1 days).
Price around the event
How the strategies did
Of 56 rule-based strategies with a curve on Bitcoin, 21 (38%) were already out of the market going in. 56 (100%) lost less than the market (-32.1%), 2 (4%) finished the window with a gain, and the median strategy returned -10.5%. Strategies that were in the market returned a median -13.3%; those that were already out returned -6.0%. In the following three months the median strategy returned 0.0%.
| Family | Strategies | Already out | Median return | Lost less than the market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend | 24 | 12% | -11.4% | |
| Momentum | 4 | 25% | -15.1% | |
| Mean reversion | 14 | 93% | -10.1% | |
| Volatility | 6 | 0% | -12.0% | |
| Regime & other | 8 | 50% | -9.9% |
Best five
| Strategy | Return in window |
|---|---|
| TREND-14 Linear Regression Channel | +5.9% |
| MR-06 Z-Score Mean Reversion | +4.3% |
| COMBO-03 Divergence Strategy | 0.0% |
| COMBO-04 Trend + Mean Reversion Hybrid | 0.0% |
| REG-01 Regime Switch | 0.0% |
Worst five
| Strategy | Return in window |
|---|---|
| MOM-01 Time-Series Momentum | -32.1% |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | -32.1% |
| MOM-03 52-Week High Momentum | -26.7% |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | -24.5% |
| SEAS-01 Monthly Seasonality | -23.1% |
56 of 72 strategies have a curve on Bitcoin. Portfolio, basket and multi-asset strategies without one are excluded.
All strategies on Bitcoin
| Strategy | Family | Return in window | In the market going in? | Max drawdown in window | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREND-14 Linear Regression Channel | Trend | +5.9% | In | -14.7% | -12.7% |
| MR-06 Z-Score Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | +4.3% | Out | -2.5% | 0.0% |
| COMBO-03 Divergence Strategy | Regime & other | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| COMBO-04 Trend + Mean Reversion Hybrid | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| REG-01 Regime Switch | Regime & other | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TAIL-01 Crisis Alpha | Regime & other | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TREND-16 Aroon Indicator | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | -1.5% |
| TREND-19 Elder Triple Screen | Trend | 0.0% | Out | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MR-04 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -1.9% | Out | -10.9% | 0.0% |
| MR-13 TRIX Reversion | Mean reversion | -2.3% | Out | -2.3% | +11.2% |
| VOL-01 Volatility Breakout | Volatility | -4.4% | In | -4.4% | +0.9% |
| MR-01 RSI Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -5.1% | Out | -10.0% | +6.1% |
| MR-12 Money Flow Index Reversion | Mean reversion | -6.0% | Out | -11.4% | +8.2% |
| MR-16 Connors RSI | Mean reversion | -6.2% | Out | -7.8% | +5.3% |
| TREND-11 Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average | Trend | -6.2% | In | -6.2% | -15.5% |
| HMA-01 HMA Crossover | Trend | -7.8% | In | -9.9% | -8.5% |
| COMBO-02 MACD + RSI Filter | Momentum | -8.9% | Out | -8.9% | -0.5% |
| RP-01 Volatility Target | Volatility | -9.1% | In | -9.1% | +3.0% |
| SUPER-01 Supertrend | Trend | -9.2% | In | -9.2% | -5.9% |
| TREND-10 Ichimoku Cloud | Trend | -9.2% | In | -9.2% | 0.0% |
| SAR-01 Parabolic SAR | Trend | -9.2% | In | -9.2% | -7.0% |
| TURTLE-01 Turtle Trading | Trend | -9.2% | In | -9.2% | -2.5% |
| KC-01 Keltner Channel Breakout | Trend | -9.2% | In | -9.2% | -1.4% |
| RISK-03 Stop Loss Overlay | Regime & other | -9.5% | In | -9.5% | -1.8% |
| ADX-01 ADX Trend Filter | Trend | -9.5% | In | -9.5% | -6.1% |
| MR-07 Hurst-Filtered Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -10.0% | Out | -13.7% | +3.7% |
| CAL-01 Turn of Month | Regime & other | -10.3% | In | -10.3% | +13.3% |
| MR-02 Bollinger Band Reversion | Mean reversion | -10.3% | Out | -11.4% | 0.0% |
| MOM-06 Residual Momentum | Momentum | -10.6% | In | -13.1% | -0.4% |
| MR-15 Ultimate Oscillator | Mean reversion | -11.4% | Out | -11.4% | +10.4% |
| COMBO-01 Bollinger-Keltner Squeeze | Volatility | -11.8% | In | -11.8% | -3.6% |
| REG-14 Volatility Regime Switch | Volatility | -12.1% | In | -12.1% | +1.1% |
| VOL-10 Volatility Risk Premium | Volatility | -12.6% | In | -12.6% | +9.5% |
| TREND-02 Donchian Breakout | Trend | -13.3% | In | -13.3% | -6.5% |
| RISK-04 Trailing Stop Strategy | Trend | -13.8% | In | -13.8% | -2.0% |
| MR-14 Detrended Price Oscillator | Mean reversion | -15.4% | In | -18.0% | +4.1% |
| TREND-12 MACD Strategy | Trend | -15.5% | In | -15.5% | -4.9% |
| TREND-17 Chandelier Exit | Trend | -16.0% | In | -16.0% | -6.2% |
| MOM-10 Accelerating Momentum | Trend | -16.2% | In | -16.2% | 0.0% |
| TREND-20 Vortex Indicator | Trend | -17.8% | In | -17.8% | -10.6% |
| MR-05 CCI Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -17.8% | Out | -22.3% | +2.1% |
| VOL-13 Volatility Regime Strategy | Volatility | -17.8% | In | -20.1% | +5.7% |
| TREND-18 Coppock Curve | Trend | -18.4% | In | -18.4% | -0.9% |
| TREND-15 Darvas Box | Trend | -18.6% | In | -18.6% | -3.4% |
| REG-10 HMM Regime Detection | Regime & other | -18.6% | In | -18.6% | -3.3% |
| MOM-11 Momentum Crash Protection | Momentum | -19.6% | In | -19.6% | 0.0% |
| MR-03 Kalman Filter Mean Reversion | Mean reversion | -20.6% | Out | -20.6% | +10.9% |
| EVENT-01 Trend + Macro Filter | Trend | -20.6% | In | -20.6% | 0.0% |
| RISK-01 Drawdown Control | Regime & other | -20.6% | In | -20.6% | +0.6% |
| MR-10 Stochastic Oscillator Reversion | Mean reversion | -21.1% | Out | -22.5% | +9.9% |
| MR-11 Williams %R Reversion | Mean reversion | -22.9% | Out | -24.3% | +3.8% |
| SEAS-01 Monthly Seasonality | Regime & other | -23.1% | Out | -23.5% | +5.3% |
| TREND-05 Dual Moving Average | Trend | -24.5% | In | -24.5% | 0.0% |
| MOM-03 52-Week High Momentum | Momentum | -26.7% | In | -26.7% | +0.1% |
| TREND-13 Triple Moving Average | Trend | -32.1% | In | -32.1% | +6.8% |
| MOM-01 Time-Series Momentum | Trend | -32.1% | In | -32.1% | -2.7% |
Sorted by return in the window, best first. "In the market" is inferred from the equity curve (see method). Next 3 months = 63 trading days after the window end.
Other markets in the same window
| Market | Move | Strategies | Ahead of the market | Already out | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ether | -41.0% | 56 | 98% | 57% | -12.4% |
Same calendar window as the main market. "Ahead of the market" = strategy return above the market's return over the window.
Method: windows are snapped to the price data, returns come from the published equity curves before costs, and "already out" is inferred from the curve. See the method on the hub page. Historical, descriptive statistics before trading costs. Not a forecast and not investment advice.